Abstract
To help ground agri-environmental policy in evidence, long-term trends in agri-environmental and agricultural land use data in Ontario, Canada (1826-2011, 1921-2011) were identified using correlation and trend detection (Mann-Kendal test) and compared to other parts of Canada and other developed countries. After historic expansion 1826-1931, farm area decreased 1931-2011 by 4 million ha or 44.5%, similar to decreases in eastern Canada, eastern US and other developed countries, but contrasting continued but slowing expansion in western Canada. Ontario crop area varied little 1921-2011, but with large shifts in crop types and production increases. Crop area in eastern Canada was declining or stable, while in western Canada continued increasing. Major changes 1921-2011 included significant declining pasture area (-78.7%), hay area (-44.9%) and cattle numbers (-33.9%), along with increases in soybean and corn area and in chicken and hog numbers-transforming landscapes, similar to trends in eastern Canada but contrasting western Canada. Two periods of change are identified using principal components analysis, 1921-1970s, a long modernization period (69.1% of variance) and the 1970s-2011 period (20.1% of variance), with decreases in cattle numbers, hay and pasture and increases in hogs, chickens, soybeans, corn and wheat. After the 1970s, agri-environmental stewardship increased, and some environmental risks decreased with reduced pesticide use (-45%, 1983-2008), phosphorus fertilizer use (-30.1%, 1981-2011) and estimated manure volumes (-42.6%, 1976-2011). Illustrating the regional diversity of agricultural change, Ontario trends are unique, differing considerably from western Canada, but having some similarities with other eastern provinces, the mid-west and eastern US and many other developed countries. The research emphasizes the need to base agri-environmental policy in sound empirical trend analysis.
Highlights
Long-term agri-environmental and agricultural land use trends across the world contribute to regional and global environmental change (Lambin & Meyfroidt, 2011)
This study identifies trends in Ontario, Canada’s most populous and second largest province, and compares these with trends in other provinces and other developed countries
Ontario has a long history of agriculture including that undertaken by indigenous peoples before European colonization
Summary
Long-term agri-environmental and agricultural land use trends across the world contribute to regional and global environmental change (Lambin & Meyfroidt, 2011). Aggregate global trends mask vast differences at national and sub-national scales (Ramankutty, Heller, & Rhemtulla, 2010; Valipour et al 2015). Studies of centuries-long agri-environmental and land use change are providing important new insights into long-term trends and drivers (Pongratz, Reick, Raddatz, & Claussen, 2008). Trends can be similar or widely divergent between regions and time periods, with land abandonment, grassland and forest conversion to annual crops or the reverse, and livestock expansion or contraction occurring in different regions and time periods. Understanding trends, past, current and emerging, is important for effective, evidence-based agri-environmental policy. This study identifies trends in Ontario, Canada’s most populous and second largest province, and compares these with trends in other provinces and other developed countries
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