Long-term scenario pathways to assess the potential of best available technologies and cost reduction of avoided carbon emissions in an existing 100% renewable regional power system: A case study of Gilgit-Baltistan (GB), Pakistan

Abstract

The long-term power planning at the regional level has recently gained significance due to the economic and efficiency competitiveness of a decentralized energy system. In Pakistan, the power sector faces the challenge of exceptionally increasing electricity demand in metropolitan areas and the urgency of reliable power access in rural areas. In this paper, a regional power-generation system of GB is developed using the LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternative Planning) model from 2016 to 2050, to explore future clean pathways to understand the planning and operational implications of futuristic variable renewables (VRE) and best available technologies (BAT). The regional power system model is further expanded by using the end-user and econometric approaches to construct five scenarios which include Business-As-Usual (BAU), BAU-OPT (BAU-optimization), Demand Side Management (DSM), DSM-OPT, and National Energy Mix (NEM). The model estimates the electricity demand projection of 3.2 TWh in 2050, at an annual average growth rate of 3.19%, and suggests that hydropower is the most dominant variable renewable source in GB’s electric power system. The adoption of the BAT would avoid 1.34 TWh or about 41% of the projected electricity consumption, which shows the maximum potential of energy efficiency measures in GB. Moreover, the results indicate that: i) home appliances and lighting account for nearly halved of the reduction potential; while lighting and cooking are the most cost effective measures in terms of energy saving at regional level; ii) least cost constraint displays the transition towards large scale renewable projects; iii) the penetration of small scale renewable project is nearly doubled under least cost constraint by the introduction of demand side measures; and iv) higher emission penalties aggressively shift energy mix toward renewables with the cost of annual environmental externalities reducing in long-term. Overall, these findings can provide a scientific basis for the sustainable development of regional power-generation systems, as well as co-benefits of penetration of VRE and BAT in low-carbon electric power regions.