Abstract
Climate change and agriculture land use changes in the form of cropping patterns are closely linked with crop water use. In this study the SDSM (statistical downscaling model) was used to downscale and simulate changes in meteorological parameters from 1961 to 2099 using HadCM3 General Circulation Model (GCM) data under two selected scenarios i.e., H3A2 and H3B2. Results indicated that Tmax, Tmin, and wind speed may increase while relative humidity and precipitation may decrease in the future under both H3A2 and H3B2 scenarios. Downscaled meteorological parameters were used as input in the CROPWAT model to simulate crop irrigation requirement (CIR) in the baseline (1961–1990) and the future (2020s, 2050s and 2080s). Data related to agriculture crop sown area of five major crops were collected from Punjab statistical reports for the period of 1981–2015 and forecasted using linear exponential smoothing based on the historical rate. Results indicated that the cropping patterns in the study area will vary with time and proportion of area of which sugarcane, wheat, and rice, may exhibit increasing trend, while decreasing trend with respect to the baseline scenario was found in maize and cotton. Crop sown area is then multiplied with CIR of individual crops derived from CROPWAT to simulate Net-CIR (m3) in three sub-scenarios S1, S2, and S3. Under the H3A2 scenario, total CIR in S1, S2, and S3 may increase by 3.26 BCM, 12.13 BCM, and 17.20 BCM in the 2080s compared to the baseline, while under the H3B2 scenario, Net-CIR in S1, S2, and S3 may increase by 2.98 BCM, 12.04 BCM, and 16.62 BCM in the 2080s with respect to the baseline. It was observed that under the S2 sub-scenario (with changing agriculture land-use), total CIR may increase by 12.13 BCM (H3A2) and 12.04 BCM (H3B2) in the 2080s with respect to the baseline (1961–1990) which is greater as compared to S1 (with changing climate). This study might be valuable in describing the negative effects of climate and agriculture land use changes on annual crop water supply in Rechna Doab.
Highlights
Availability of water resources has great significance for agricultural production, human settlements, industry, and natural vegetation
It was observed that under the S2 sub-scenario, total crop irrigation requirement (CIR) may increase by 12.13 BCM (H3A2) and 12.04 BCM (H3B2) in the 2080s with respect to the baseline (1961–1990) which is greater as compared to S1
This study might be valuable in describing the negative effects of climate and agriculture land use changes on annual crop water supply in Rechna Doab
Summary
Availability of water resources has great significance for agricultural production, human settlements, industry, and natural vegetation. The continuous change in climatic variables and agricultural expansion has retained new demands on available water resources every day due to changes in crop irrigation requirement [2]. Irrigated agriculture is always ranked 1st in the world according to water consumers as it consumes approximately 64% of fresh water [3,4,5]. Water withdrawals for agricultural production systems is much focused in space and with respect to crop types. Asian countries especially Pakistan, China, and India, and the United States account for 68% of fresh water withdrawals for irrigated agriculture, out of which ~34% is consumed by India for growing rice and wheat crops covering 70% of the irrigated command area [6]
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
