Agricultural land use change under climate variability and change: Drivers and impacts

Abstract

Few comprehensive studies have clearly addressed climate change impacts on agricultural land use change in developing countries. Also, land use studies have rarely reflected the perception of farmers concerning the drivers and consequences of land use change. This study aimed to evaluate agricultural land use changes using the case of Eij County, Iran, and determine the perceived drivers and consequences of land use conversion under climate change. To investigate the potential drivers of land use change, semi-structured interviews were conducted with 26 rural households. Also, to reveal the consequences of land use change, 185 farmers were surveyed. The results indicated that farming practices have transformed from almost entirely growing annual crops into the cultivating trees as the main crop with cereals as a subsidiary crop. Moreover, the changes in agricultural land use were found to be driven by the interplay between natural, institutional, economic, social, and psychological factors. Using grounded theory, the causal, contextual, and intervening drivers of agricultural land use conversion were identified, and their sequences and relationships were established. The findings also revealed that the rational adjustment in land use patterns poses great economic benefits and reduces the vulnerability of rural households, in the face of recurrent droughts.