Long term of sea surface temperature prediction for Indonesia seas using multi time-series satellite data for upwelling dynamics projection

Abstract

Global warming, which impacts global temperatures, has led to an increase in sea surface temperature (SST). This rise significantly affects marine ecological systems, especially in Indonesia. As a result, long-term forecasting of SST dynamics is essential for shaping various policies. However, most studies on SST forecasting have focused on short-term predictions in local or medium-sized areas and often overlook the dynamic upwelling that influences SST. In this paper, we propose a five-year SST prediction for the Indonesian seas, incorporating multi-time-series satellite data to project upwelling dynamics. We utilized two deep learning time series models to construct a predictive model that estimates monthly SST values. This model employs extensive multiple satellite data, encompassing 14,934 points (including SST with a resolution of 0.090, wind, ENSO, heat flux, and solar radiation) from 2003 to 2021. To enrich the training data and mitigate overfitting, we applied data augmentation for time series. Experimental results reveal that all satellite datasets correlate with SST over five years. The 1D-Convolution Neural Network outperformed the Long-Short Term Memory model, exhibiting the lowest mean absolute error of 0.39 °C compared to 0.45 °C. Our model detected a consistent upwelling dynamic over a five-year pattern in the Indonesian seas. These findings suggest that our proposed model offers accurate and efficient long-term monthly SST predictions, crucial for upwelling projections.