Long-term forecasting of electricity in East Kalimantan Province using the fuzzy logic approach

Abstract

The increase in the number of residents has an impact on the increasing number of electricity customers each year, resulting in an increase in electricity consumption. In order to achieve the adjustment of generation and demand for electrical energy needs electricity system planning is needed, one of which is forecasting the consumption of electrical energy in the future. This aims to realize optimization in the process of supplying electrical energy. In this study, the application of the fuzzy logic method is used to process the rules of the input variables and produce forecasting of long-term annual electricity consumption in East Kalimantan Province until 2028. In addition, the Exponential Smoothing method is also used as a comparison method to determine the accuracy of forecasting calculation models. Electrical energy forecasting has characteristics that are usually influenced by factors such as population, number of customers, GRDP and so on. Input data used for learning fuzzy logic in this forecasting are the actual data for 2010-2018 and the projected input data for 2019-2028 are used to obtain forecasting results. Then the forecasting data for 2019-2028 is compared with the PLN RUPTL projection data. From the results of forecasting, the best level of accuracy with the smallest error value is obtained using the fuzzy logic method that is with a MAPE value of 3.80%. This research is expected to be a consideration for forecasting electricity consumption models for the planned transfer of Indonesia’s new capital in the area of East Kalimantan Province.