Long-Term Forecasting by Wavelet-Based Filter Bank Selections and Its Application

Abstract

Long-term forecasting of seasonal time series is critical in many applications such as planning business strategies and resolving possible problems of a business company. Unlike the traditional approach that depends solely on dynamic models, Li and Hinich (2002) introduced a combination of stochastic dynamic modeling with filter bank approach for forecasting seasonal patterns using highly coherent(High-C) waveforms. We modify the filter selection and forecasting procedure on wavelet domain to be more feasible and compare the resulting predictor with one that obtained from the wavelet variance estimation method. An improvement over other seasonal pattern extraction and forecasting methods based on such as wavelet scalogram, Holt-Winters, and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average(SARIMA) is shown in terms of the prediction error. The performance of the proposed method is illustrated by a simulation study and an application to the real stock price data.