Price analysis of selected marine fish available in Colombo fish markets

K B P Perera,U K Jayasinghe-Mudalige,J M M Udugama,H M L K Herath,W Wijesuriya,J C Edirisinghe

doi:10.4038/sljer.v4i1.69

Abstract

This study aims to examine the price behavior of several key types of marine fish consumed by Sri Lankans which are commonly available in the Colombo fish market using time series econometric modeling techniques. It is based on the claim that fish prices have increased overtime and are frequently subjected to price fluctuations. Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models in particular were employed to find a parsimonious time series model for better forecasts. The outcome of analysis revealed that certain higher order SARIMA models were able to parsimoniously track the dynamic behavior of real fish prices with acceptably accurate forecasts. Although the nominal fish prices have increased over time, real prices were steady, and seasonal patterns in real price changes were found to occur, with higher prices observed in middle months of the year. Results show that there is an increasing trend in nominal prices but not in real prices. Therefore, the apparent increasing trend in nominal fish prices may be governed largely by rising inflation in the country rather than by issues inherent to the fish industry.

Highlights

Surrounded by sea, Sri Lanka is blessed with enormous ocean resources, including both biological and non-biological components, and opportunities to make full use of them: which, with careful planning, can effectively be exploited for the socio-economic development of the nation
The average weekly Colombo retail prices of fish recorded at the Hector Kobbekaduwa Agrarian Research and Training Institute (HARTI) were obtained for this analysis to cover the period from January 2000 to December 2013
As the first step of analysis, the nominal prices of fish were converted into real prices to avoid impacts of the inflation in the analysis, where the Colombo Consumer Price Index (CCPI) – a social and economic indicator constructed to measure changes over time in the general level of prices of consumer goods and services that a representative group of households acquire, use or pay for consumption - was used as the price deflator

Summary

Introduction

Surrounded by sea, Sri Lanka is blessed with enormous ocean resources, including both biological and non-biological components, and opportunities to make full use of them: which, with careful planning, can effectively be exploited for the socio-economic development of the nation. The fisheries sector plays an indispensable role in the economy of Sri Lanka, contributing around 1.4% to the GDP in 2015. The contribution of marine fisheries (coastal, deep sea and off shore) segment to the overall fisheries sector is around 87% (Fisheries Sector Outlook, 2015). Coastal fish production contributes nearly 52% of the total fish production, to which the contribution of off shore and deep sea fisheries is around 35%. The Medical Research Institute (MRI) of Sri Lanka pointed out that an average per capita consumption of about 60g of fish per day would be satisfactory to ensure adequate nutrition (Fisheries Sector Development Strategy of Sri Lanka, 2010). The fisheries sector provides livelihood for the majority of people living in the coastal belt and currently provides direct employment to about 650,000 livelihoods comprising of 150,000 in fishing, 10,000 in associated service activities and 400,000 in fish trade (Anon, 2007)

Objectives

Methods

Results

Conclusion