Abstract
In Northern Europe, climate change may facilitate the prevalence of Scots pine, yet also promote the spread of pathogens attacking this species. A common biotic risk for Scots pine in nurseries and young stands is Lophodermium needle cast, primarily caused by Lophodermium seditiosum, which negatively affects the survival and growth of saplings. Reduced tree growth has been observed several years after damage by Lophodermium needle cast. However, for decision-making in protection or resistance breeding, an estimate of financial loss is important. Thus, the study aimed to assess the long-term influence of Lophodermium needle cast on the growth and financial value of Scots pine stands. The effect of needle cast damage during the sixth growing season on growth at the age of 17 years was evaluated in a control-crossed Scots pine progeny trial, and the results indicated a significantly negative effect on the height and diameter of the trees. A significant family effect also existed on the severity of the needle cast damage. Long-term simulations indicated that severely damaged Scots pines had a reduced equivalent annual annuity (EAA) of almost 100% at the final harvest. More intensive early management to reduce stand density could partly compensate for losses caused by needle cast. A higher EAA for the most resistant group of trees regardless of the stand management scenarios suggests an economically justified potential for improved resistance. Strong negative (−0.62 to −0.70) correlations of height and survival with the proportion of severely affected trees at the family mean level implies that resistant genotypes can be selected along with improved growth in progeny trials, which are affected by needle cast.
Highlights
In the hemiboreal regions of Europe, climate change can lead to an increased share of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), substituting for other tree species, such as Norway spruce Picea abies (L.)
The results indicated that, if the risk of needle cast damage could be minimised by applying such measures as the selection of more resistant genotypes, the equivalent annual annuity (EAA) financial outcome might be improved regardless of the decisions concerning a desirable management regime and final harvest time
In long-term simulations, L. seditiosum attacks at an early age had a substantial effect on EAA at the final harvest, which was by an average of 61.5 EUR ha−1 or 100% lower for severely damaged trees compared to the unaffected trees, applying a 2%, 3%, and 4% interest rate
Summary
In the hemiboreal regions of Europe, climate change can lead to an increased share of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), substituting for other tree species, such as Norway spruce Picea abies (L.)H. They are more susceptible to needle cast and needle blight than other conifers [2,3]. Climate change has a direct influence on both trees and pathogens, and the interactions between them, resulting in changed disease effects and more frequent and severe attacks [4,5,6,7,8]. Since the 1990s, several severe outbreaks of Lophodermium needle cast caused by Lophodermium seditiosum in the Baltic region, Poland, and Fennoscandia have occurred, and it is still one of the most common needle diseases of pines [9,10,11,12,13,14]
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