Abstract
Habitat suitability models have been used for decades to develop spatially explicit predictions of landscape capacity to support populations of target species. As high-resolution remote sensing data are increasingly included in habitat suitability models that inform spatial conservation and restoration decisions, it is essential to validate model predictions with independent, quantitative data collected over sustained time frames. Here, we used data collected from 12 reefs over a 14 yr sampling period to validate a recently developed physical habitat suitability model for intertidal oyster reefs in coastal Virginia, USA. The model used intertidal elevation, water residence time, and fetch to predict the likelihood of suitable conditions for eastern oysters Crassostrea virginica across a coastal landscape, and remotely sensed elevation was the most restrictive parameter in the model. Model validation revealed that adult oyster biomass was on average 1.5 times greater on oyster reefs located in predicted ‘suitable’ habitat relative to reefs located in predicted ‘less suitable’ habitat over the 14 yr sampling period. By validating this model with long-term population data, we highlight the importance of elevation as a driver of sustained intertidal oyster success. These findings extend the validation of habitat suitability models by quantitatively supporting the inclusion of remotely sensed data in habitat suitability models for intertidal species. Our results suggest that future oyster restoration and aquaculture projects could enhance oyster biomass by using habitat suitability models to select optimal site locations.
Highlights
Habitat suitability models inform species management, restoration, and conservation by predicting landscape capacity to support target populations and identifying specific areas of heightened habitat suitability (Thuiller & Münkemüller 2010)
Our results show that habitat suitability models developed with remotely sensed data can accurately predict areas of sustained high oyster biomass, which can inform spatial planning for oyster populations
Adult oyster biomass was consistently higher over time in predicted suitable habitats (Fig. 2B; main effect of habitat suitability: F1,67 = 9.0, p = 0.004) without a detectable temporal trend
Summary
Habitat suitability models inform species management, restoration, and conservation by predicting landscape capacity to support target populations and identifying specific areas of heightened habitat suitability (Thuiller & Münkemüller 2010). Most existing habitat suitability models for oyster populations are habitat suitability index models, which apply known wildlife−habitat relationships to spatially explicit environmental data (Brooks 1997). These models incorporate various mechanisms that influence oyster persistence, including water quality measures (e.g. salinity, temperature, dissolved oxygen), hydrodynamic attributes (e.g. water depth, flow velocity), and biological variables (e.g. substrate type, predator abundance, larval dispersal; Cake 1983, Theuerkauf & Lipcius 2016, Puckett et al 2018, Chowdhury et al 2019). Oysters can exist in both subtidal and intertidal habitats, most oyster habitat suitability models are for subtidal populations (Cake 1983, Theuerkauf & Lipcius 2016, Puckett et al 2018; but see Chowdhury et al 2019)
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