Abstract
The statistical relationships between lake ice phenology (freeze and break-up dates, ice duration), air temperature and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index are analysed for eight lakes in Karelia from 1950 to 2009. Linear trends over this time period are estimated. It is shown that in the last 20 years trends in the timing of ice phenomena are more evident than in the entire 60-year period. The statistical relationship between lake ice phenology and variability of regional air temperature is used in the empirical model to assess ice-related events on previously unstudied lakes in NW Russia.
Highlights
The formation and melting of ice are important seasonal processes in the temperate zone
The present study aims to evaluate the linear trends of ice events for a 60-year period (1950– 2009) in eight lakes of Karelia and define their relationship with the global parameter variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index and the regional characteristics of the air temperature, as well as to improve a previously developed empirical model for assessment of ice events due to climatic effects
Time series analysis for eight lakes of Karelia showed that in the period 1950–2009 the freezing of all lakes was shiffed to a later date, while ice melting was shiffed to the earlier date compared to the long-term average
Summary
The formation and melting of ice are important seasonal processes in the temperate zone. The statistical relationships between lake ice phenology (freeze and break-up dates, ice duration), air temperature and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index are analysed for eight lakes in Karelia from 1950 to 2009.
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