Long-Range Weather Forecasting in the Soviet Union

Abstract

Soviet developments in long-range weather forecasting are described and evaluated. Part I (by W. A. Baum), dealing with non-dynamical methods, is based entirely on a literature survey. Part II (by P. D. Thompson), dealing with dynamical methods, is based partially on direct contact with Russian colleagues. Operational forecasts based upon the synoptic-empirical Multanovsky method, as modified during the last generation, appear to have been unsuccessful. This apparent failure, only very recently admitted, seems to stem in part from an almost blind adherence to the complex and somewhat mystical Multanovsky philosophy. There are definite indications that a sharp break with the past took place in the mid-fifties, but it is too soon to discern a clear trend or to estimate the impact of this break on operational capabilities. No attempts appear to have been made to apply modern statistical approaches to the problem. Soviet understanding of the basic theory of dynamical long-range prediction does not seem to surpass ours. However, Russian meteorologists have been relatively forward-looking in the application of dynamical methods on an experimental or routine basis. Forecasts of surface mean monthly temperature anomalies, for the Eurasian continent, have been prepared by dynamical methods since 1952. Their accuracy appears not significantly different from that of subjective forecasts.