Locating China in the Twenty-First-Century Knowledge-Based Economy

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In the early nineteenth century a ‘great divergence’ occurred that bifurcated civilizations into East and West, sending the former into descent. Since the 1950s, however, the economic growth of East Asia has been nothing short of remarkable. This development has led some scholars, such as Giovanni Arrighi and the colleagues of Takeshi Hamashita, to optimistically suggest the resurgence of East Asia in general and the re-centering of China in particular, a line of reasoning that appears to draw on memories of the China-centered tributary trade system defining the region for centuries. For these scholars, the rise of East Asia after 1950 can be seen as a reversal of the great divergence. We challenge this view. Data show that China has yet to prepare for the new knowledge-based economy. Furthermore, we raise the possibility that Japan may move farther away from, rather than closer to, the traditional center of China in the twenty-first-century East Asian interstate system.