Locally triggered seismicity in the central Swiss Alps following the large rainfall event of August 2005

Abstract

In 2005 August, an unusual series of 47 earthquakes occurred over a 12-hr period in central Switzerland. The earthquakes occurred at the end of 3-d period of intensive rainfall, with over 300 mm of precipitation. The highest seismicity occurred as two distinct clusters in the region of Muotatal and Riemenstalden, Switzerland, a well-known Karst area that received a particularly large amount of rainfall. The large increase in seismicity, compared to the background, and the short time delay between the onset of the intense rainfall and the seismicity strongly suggest that earthquakes were triggered by rainfall. In our preferred model, an increase in fluid pressure at the surface due to a large amount of rain leads to a local increase in pore fluid pressure at depth. The increase in pore fluid pressure will reduce the shear strength of a porous medium by counteracting normal stress and, at the end, provoke failure. The series of triggered earthquakes in central Switzerland occurred in regions that have been seismically active in the past, showing similar hypocentre locations and magnitudes. This suggests that these earthquakes occurred on existing faults that were critically stressed. We modelled the intense rainfall as a step increase in fluid pressure at the surface that migrates to greater depths following the solution of the one-dimensional diffusion equation in a homogeneous half space. This allowed us to estimate the hydraulic diffusivity by plotting triggered seismicity in a time–depth plot. We found values of hydraulic diffusivity in the range from 0.01 to 0.5 m2 s−1 for our study area. These values are in good agreement with previous studies on earthquakes that were triggered by fluids, supporting the idea that the observed earthquake series was triggered by the large amount of rainfall.