Local Scour Depth Prediction of Offshore Wind Power Monopile Foundation Based on GMDH Method

Abstract

In recent years, Chinese offshore wind farms have experienced varying degrees of foundation scour since their completion. The maximum scour depth of pile foundations has far exceeded the design scour depth, which seriously threatens the safety of wind turbines. Among the current scour depth prediction formulas, the values calculated by the Chinese specification 65-1, 65-2 formula are small and the prediction results are on the dangerous side. The calculated value of the American Hec-18 formula is safe but conservative. The prediction formula of other specifications has a large deviation from the actual situation. Based on the available test data, the main factors influencing the local scour depth of pile foundations, the gauge analysis method, and the group method of data handling (GMDH), this paper proposes a prediction formula for the local scour depth of monopile foundation under the action of wave–current. In addition, monopile scour flume experiments were conducted. Combining the experimental data of the flume test and the scour monitoring data of the Rudong wind farm in Jiangsu, the calculated values of the depth prediction equation in this paper and the Chinese code equation, DNV code equation, HEC-18 equation, Rudolph equation, and Raaijmakers equation were compared and analyzed. The results show that the relative error, mean relative error, variance, and normalized variance between the predicted and measured values of this paper’s formula are smaller than those of other prediction formulas. The formula in this paper has a high calculation accuracy and practical application value.