Abstract
Load forecasting is a process of predicting the future load demands. It is important for power system planners and demand controllers in ensuring that there would be enough generation to cope with the increasing demand. Accurate model for load forecasting can lead to a better budget planning, maintenance scheduling and fuel management. This paper presents an attempt to forecast the maximum demand of electricity by finding an appropriate time series model. The methods considered in this study include the Naive method, Exponential smoothing, Seasonal Holt-Winters, ARMA, ARAR algorithm, and Regression with ARMA Errors. The performance of these different methods was evaluated by using the forecasting accuracy criteria namely, the Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Relative Percentage Error (MARPE). Based on these three criteria the pure autoregressive model with an order 2, or AR (2) under ARMA family emerged as the best model for forecasting electricity demand.
Highlights
Malaysia’s National electricity utility company (TNB) is the largest in the industry, serving over six million customers throughout Malaysia
Load forecasting is a process of predicting the future load demands.It is important for electricity power system planners and demand controllers in ensuring that there would be enough supply of electricity to cope with an increasing demand
ARMA models denoted by ARMA (p, q) come from an important parametric family of linear time series models, which provide a general framework for studying stationary processes
Summary
Malaysia’s National electricity utility company (TNB) is the largest in the industry, serving over six million customers throughout Malaysia. TNB’s core activities are in the generation, transmission and distribution of electricity. The Transmission Division is responsible for the whole spectrum of transmission activities ranging from system planning, evaluating, implementing and maintaining the transmission assets. One of the requirements of the system planning is load forecasting. Load forecasting is a process of predicting the future load demands.It is important for electricity power system planners and demand controllers in ensuring that there would be enough supply of electricity to cope with an increasing demand. Load forecasting can determine which generators need to be dispatched, or kept as a backup or on spinning reserve status (Izham Zainal Abidin 2005). Accurate load forecasting can lead to an overall reduction of cost, better budget planning, maintenance scheduling and fuel management
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