Abstract

Abstract. A collection of scientific analyses, metrics, and visualizations for robust validation of ice sheet models is presented using the Land Ice Verification and Validation toolkit (LIVVkit), version 2.1, and the LIVVkit Extensions repository (LEX), version 0.1. This software collection targets stand-alone ice sheet or coupled Earth system models, and handles datasets and analyses that require high-performance computing and storage. LIVVkit aims to enable efficient and fully reproducible workflows for postprocessing, analysis, and visualization of observational and model-derived datasets in a shareable format, whereby all data, methodologies, and output are distributed to users for evaluation. Extending from the initial LIVVkit software framework, we demonstrate Greenland ice sheet simulation validation metrics using the coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM) as well as an idealized stand-alone high-resolution Community Ice Sheet Model, version 2 (CISM2), coupled to the Albany/FELIX velocity solver (CISM-Albany or CISM-A). As one example of the capability, LIVVkit analyzes the degree to which models capture the surface mass balance (SMB) and identifies potential sources of bias, using recently available in situ and remotely sensed data as comparison. Related fields within atmosphere and land surface models, e.g., surface temperature, radiation, and cloud cover, are also diagnosed. Applied to the CESM1.0, LIVVkit identifies a positive SMB bias that is focused largely around Greenland's southwest region that is due to insufficient ablation.

Highlights

  • About 10 % of human settlement is currently and will likely continue to be clustered in regions potentially vulnerable to sea level rise (SLR) (McGranahan et al, 2007), which will arguably result in some of the most devastating impacts of climate change

  • With the aim of facilitating large-scale development and execution of ISM and coupled Earth system models (ESMs)-ISM experiments, and determining the degree to which they sufficiently represent aspects of the actual Earth system, we present the software and data package LIVVkit Extensions repository (LEX) (Kennedy et al, 2018b), a validation extension to the Land Ice Verification and Validation toolkit (LIVVkit; Kennedy et al, 2018a), which provides a basic but extensible capability to assess ice sheet models within, and independent of, coupled ESM configurations

  • Given the dependence of ice sheet evolution on surface mass balance, LIVVkit tracks SMB for both coupled ESM and stand-alone ISM, even if it is provided as a forcing for a simulation for the ISM

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Summary

Introduction

About 10 % of human settlement is currently and will likely continue to be clustered in regions potentially vulnerable to sea level rise (SLR) (McGranahan et al, 2007), which will arguably result in some of the most devastating impacts of climate change. These ice sheet models must include accurate representations of ice sheet dynamics, physics, and coupling schemes (e.g., to obtain forcing from other components, like the ocean and atmosphere) As these models are connected to coupled ESMs, coupled-model initialization procedures and a quantitative understanding of key model sensitivities and uncertainties (Vizcaíno, 2014) are required. The philosophy of verification and validation (V&V), using terminology and standards from Oberkampf and Roy (2010), and its adoption by the LIVVkit to verify ice sheet model simulations is presented and discussed in Kennedy et al (2017) Efforts to validate both ISM and ISM-ESM behavior, including a new capability to compare ESM-derived surface mass balance against recently available observations, are detailed here

Target simulations for analysis
Comparison data specific for ISM
Comparison data specific for ESM
Surface mass balance comparison data
Software infrastructure for validation
Presentation and visualization
Stand-alone land ice model analysis
Coupled-model analysis
Basin scale SMB analysis
Findings
Conclusions
Full Text
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