Abstract
To investigate the distribution of liver cancer mortality as well as its developing trend from l991 to 2012, forecast the future five-year trend, and provide a basis for the comprehensive prevention and management. Mortality data for liver cancer in China from 1991 to 2012 were used to describe characteristics and distribution of liver cancer mortality. Trend surface analysis was used to study the geographical distribution of liver cancer mortality. Curve estimation, time series modeling, gray modeling (GM) and joinpoint regression were used to predict and forecast future trends. The mortality rate of liver cancer has constantly increased in China since 1991. Rates in rural areas are higher than in urban areas, and in males are higher than in females. In addition, our data predicted that the trend will continue to increase in the next 5 years. The age-specific mortality of liver cancer increases with age and peaks in the group of 80-84 years old. Geographical analysis showed the liver mortality rate was higher in the southeast provinces, such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Guangdong, and southwest regions like Guangxi Province. The standardized mortality rate of liver cancer in China has consistently increased from 1991 to 2012, and the upward trend is predicted to continue in the future. Much better prevention and management of liver cancer is needed in high mortality areas (the southwestern and southeastern parts of China) and high mortality age groups (80- to 84-year-olds), especially in rural areas.
Highlights
According to the International Agency for Research on Cancer, cancer of the liver is the fifth most common cancer in the world, with 523,000 cases per year for males, accounting for 7.9% of all male cancers, and 226,000 cases per year for females, accounting for 6.5% of all female cancers
Trend surface analysis was used to study the geographical distribution of liver cancer mortality
The standardized mortality rate of liver cancer in China has consistently increased from 1991 to 2012, and the upward trend is predicted to continue in the future
Summary
According to the International Agency for Research on Cancer, cancer of the liver is the fifth most common cancer in the world, with 523,000 cases per year for males, accounting for 7.9% of all male cancers, and 226,000 cases per year for females, accounting for 6.5% of all female cancers. Liver cancer has high mortality and the geographic distribution of mortality is similar to that of incidence. China is a country with a high incidence of liver cancer, accounting for 55% of the world’s cases (men, 35.2/100,000; women, 13.30/100,000) (Ferlay et al, 2001; Stewart et al, 2003). Since over 80% of deaths are in developing countries, liver cancer has been a major public health problem in these parts of the world, including China. Much is known that variations in age, sex and geographic region are likely to be related to the differences of liver cancer mortality. The related data of liver cancer in China from 1991-2012 was used to understand the dynamics of death, sex, age, urban or rural location, and geographic distribution of liver cancer. We used trend surface analysis, one of the most widely used global surface-fitting procedures, to show the overall geographical distribution and the trend of liver cancer, and to reflect disease variation in local areas, as well as the regional distribution and trend of disease( He et al, 2008; Shi et al, 2014)
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