Study on behavioral risk factors and lagging effect analysis with liver cancer mortality in rural critical areas of 4 provinces of China from 2009 to 2019

Abstract

Objective: To analyze the trend of liver cancer mortality in rural key areas of Jiangsu Province, Anhui Province, Shandong Province, and Henan Province (4 provinces) from 2009 to 2019 and to explore the influence of behavioral risk factors on liver cancer mortality and its lagging effect, and provide a reference for the prevention and treatment of liver cancer in China. Methods: Based on the 2009-2019 National Cause of Death Surveillance Database of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, and the survey data of tumor and risk factor behavior of residents in key areas of 4 provinces, Joinpoint 4.2 software was used to calculate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) for assessing the temporal trend of standardized mortality of liver cancer; Chi-square test and trend Chi-square test were used to analyze the regional distribution difference and temporal change trend of behavioral habit factors. Stata 16 was used to establish a panel model to analyze the correlation and lagging effect of behavioral risk factors with liver cancer. Results: The standardized mortality rate of liver cancer in Jinhu County, Sheyang County, Lingbi County, Shou County, Mengcheng County, Wenshang County, Juye County, Luoshan County, Shenqiu County, and Xiping County showed a downward trend (AAPC<0, P<0.05) from 2009 to 2019. The consumption frequency of pickles/salted fish, red meat, and aquatic products showed a downward trend. The consumption frequency of healthy foods such as fresh vegetables, fresh fruits, and dairy products in all counties and districts showed an upward trend, and the consumption frequency of fried foods, kimchi, smoked foods, moldy foods, coffee, and soy products remained at a low level (P<0.05); but the consumption frequency of soy products and dairy products was still <20.00%. Fried food, pickles/salted fish, current smoking rate, alcohol consumption rate, and unvaccinated hepatitis B vaccine rate were positively correlated with liver cancer death, and there was a lag effect, and the lag period was 4, 1, 6, 5, 4 years respectively. Conclusions: From 2009 to 2019, the mortality rate of liver cancer in rural key areas of 4 provinces shows a downward trend. There is a correlation and lagging effect between behavioral risk factors such as fried food, smoking, and alcohol consumption and liver cancer death.