Lithofacies modeling by multipoint statistics and economic evaluation by NPV volume for the early Cretaceous Wabiskaw Member in Athabasca oilsands area, Canada

Abstract

The static modeling and dynamic simulation are essential and critical processes in petroleum exploration and development. In this study, lithofacies models for Wabiskaw Member in Athabasca, Canada are generated by multipoint statistics (MPS) and then compared with the models built by sequential indicator simulation (SIS). Three training images (TIs) are selected from modern depositional environments; the Orinoco River Delta estuary, Cobequid bay-Salmon River estuary, and Danube River delta environment. In order to validate lithofacies models, average and variance of similarity in lithofacies are calculated through random and zonal blind-well tests. In random six-blind-well test, similarity average of MPS models is higher than that of SIS model. The Salmon MPS model closely resembles facies pattern of Wabiskaw Member in subsurface. Zonal blind-well tests show that successful lithofacies modeling for transitional depositional setting requires additional or proper zonation information on horizontal variation, vertical proportion, and secondary data.As Wabiskaw Member is frontier oilsands lease, it is impossible to evaluate the economics from production data or dynamic simulation. In this study, a dynamic steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) performance indicator (SPIDER) on the basis of reservoir characteristics is calculated to build 3D reservoir model for the evaluation of the SAGD feasibility in Wabiskaw Member. SPIDER depends on reservoir properties, economic limit of steam-oil ratio, and bitumen price. Reservoir properties like porosity, permeability, and water saturation are measured from 13 cores and calculated from 201 well-logs. Three dimensional volumes of reservoir properties are constructed mostly based on relationships among properties. Finally, net present value (NPV) volume can be built by equation relating NPV and SPIDER. The economic area exceeding criterion of US$ 10,000 is identified, and the ranges of reservoir properties are estimated. NPV-volume-generation workflow from reservoir parameter to static model provides cost- and time- effective method to evaluate the oilsands SAGD project.