Market Outlook For Athabasca Bitumen -- The Economics of Location

Abstract

Abstract In situ bitumen production in the Athabasca Oil Sands Area in Northern Alberta, Canada, is well-positioned to make inroads into traditional markets for Canadian crude oil in Canada and in particular in the U.S. The development of the steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) technology has lowered supply costs and has made Athabasca bitumen competitive with other North American supply sources of heavy crudes and bitumens. As part of a larger SAGD commercialization study, this paper examines potential markets for Athabasca bitumen, determines transportation options and costs to markets, and determines bitumen netback prices at the Athabasca Oil Sands Area resulting from sales to various markets. The paper also examines how the current lack of pipeline infrastructure, out of the Athabasca Oil Sands Area, limits the market opportunity of Athabasca bitumen. Introduction In situ recovery of bitumen from the Athabasca Oil Sands Area has challenged the oil industry for over 45 years. With the development of new technology, a potential breakthrough is at hand. The Underground Test Facility (UTF) project (Figure 1) initiated and currently operated by the Alberta Department of Energy has shown notable success in introducing Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD) recovery technology to exploit oil sands reservoirs. The UTF project pre-commercial phase currently produces about 2000 barrels per day of bitumen from three horizontal well pairs drilled from tunnels underlying the reservoir. The bitumen is sold both locally as well as to pipeline distribution terminals in Alberta. Since no pipeline exists to move the bitumen product to these transfer points, all the production is trucked prior to being shipped by pipeline to ultimate market. Though still in the pre-commercial stage, SAGD appears to have potential for widespread commercial application. This was the basis for a two year (1992-1994) study conducted jointly by the Alberta Department of Energy and UTF Industry Participants. A commercial project with bitumen production of 30,000 barrels per calendar day was selected as the base case for this study. Results indicate that the social supply cost will be $7.63 per barrel for a project based on SAGD wells drilled from the surface and $9; 12 per barrel if the SAGD wells are drilled from underground tunnels as is the case for the existing project (1) The supply cost represents the average cost per unit of production over the project life that will provide the rate of return on capital that is implied by the discount rate (10%) before taxes and royalties. Plans are under way to drill two more well pairs from the surface to confirm the technical parameters used in the study. A marketing/transportation review which was conducted as part of the overall commercial project study forms the basis of this paper. Bitumen marketing and transportation issues are addressed and the following questions are answered. P. 41