Abstract

SummaryWe consider the analysis of continuous repeated measurement outcomes that are collected longitudinally. A standard framework for analysing data of this kind is a linear Gaussian mixed effects model within which the outcome variable can be decomposed into fixed effects, time invariant and time-varying random effects, and measurement noise. We develop methodology that, for the first time, allows any combination of these stochastic components to be non-Gaussian, using multivariate normal variance–mean mixtures. To meet the computational challenges that are presented by large data sets, i.e. in the current context, data sets with many subjects and/or many repeated measurements per subject, we propose a novel implementation of maximum likelihood estimation using a computationally efficient subsampling-based stochastic gradient algorithm. We obtain standard error estimates by inverting the observed Fisher information matrix and obtain the predictive distributions for the random effects in both filtering (conditioning on past and current data) and smoothing (conditioning on all data) contexts. To implement these procedures, we introduce an R package: ngme. We reanalyse two data sets, from cystic fibrosis and nephrology research, that were previously analysed by using Gaussian linear mixed effects models.

Highlights

  • This paper is concerned with the analysis of real-valued repeated measurement data that are collected through time: known as longitudinal data

  • An important property of this distribution is that, for any c > 0, cV ∼ generalized inverse Gaussian (GIG).p, a=c, cb/. Another property that is useful for the construction of the samplingbased inferential algorithms that we introduce in Sections 4.2 and 4.4 is that the conditional distribution of V given the observed data is GIG

  • To maintain the interpretation of σ2 as the variance of the noise, at least in the symmetric case, we constrain the values of the GIG parameters a, b and p, so that E[ViZj ] = 1, Linear Mixed Effects Models

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Summary

Introduction

This paper is concerned with the analysis of real-valued repeated measurement data that are collected through time: known as longitudinal data. This example shows several features that are typical of studies of this kind: the outcome variable, the PANSS-score (positive and negative syndrome scale) (Kay et al, 1987), is an imperfect measurement instrument for the underlying process of interest, namely each subject’s state of mental health at the time of measurement; the outcome variable exhibits stochastic variation both between subjects and between follow-up times within subjects; questions of interest include estimation of parameters that define the mean response profiles of the underlying process over time and prediction of the trajectory of the process for an individual subject.

Gaussian models for real-valued repeated measurement data
A flexible class of non-Gaussian models
Noise and random effects
Stochastic process
Likelihood-based inference
Multiple-chain estimation
Model validation and model selection
Case-studies
Results for the NIG model
Simulation studies
Results for the randomslope model
Discussion
References in the discussion

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