Linda problem – the tame solution in question

Abstract

After a brief reminder of the, so called, Linda problem and its solution by Kahneman & Tversky (KT) (the tame solution), I point out the implications of the solution adopted by the KTs. Among these implications, I emphasize the importance of the relation of probability between the sentences: ‘Linda is active in a feminist movement’ (F) and ‘Linda is a bank teller and active in a feminist movement’ (T∧F); while in KT’s paper the main emphasis was put on considering the relationship between the probability of sentences: ‘Linda is a bank teller’ (T) and ‘Linda is a bank teller and active in a feminist movement’ (T∧F). I offer a critical argument against the zero hypothesis H0 that ‘at least 85% of the respondents will choose the sentence F as more likely than the sentence (T∧F), and the opposite consequently will be selected at most by 15% of the respondents;’ being drawn from the assumptions made by Kahneman and Tversky. This hypothesis will be further partially refuted by means of results from the surveys N0.1. and N0.2. Then the reasoning supporting the result of surveys is presented and finally critical conclusions will be derived.