Abstract
PurposeTo estimate lifetime risk of receiving an HIV diagnosis in the United States if existing infection rates continue. MethodsWe used mortality, census, and HIV surveillance data for 2010 to 2014 to calculate age-specific probabilities of an HIV diagnosis. The probabilities were applied to a hypothetical cohort of 10 million live births to estimate lifetime risk. ResultsLifetime risk was 1 in 68 for males and 1 in 253 for females. Lifetime risk for men was 1 in 22 for blacks, 1 in 51 for Hispanic/Latinos, and 1 in 140 for whites; and for women was 1 in 54 for blacks, 1 in 256 for Hispanic/Latinas, and 1 in 941 for whites. By risk group, the highest risk was among men who have sex with men (1 in 6) and the lowest was among male heterosexuals (1 in 524). Most of the states with the highest lifetime risk were in the South. ConclusionsThe estimates highlight different risks across populations and the need for continued improvements in prevention and treatment. They can also be used to communicate the risk of HIV infection and increase public awareness of HIV.
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