Abstract
It is well-known that societal energy consumption and pollutant emissions from transport are influenced not only by technical efficiency, mode choice and the carbon/pollutant content of energy but also by lifestyle choices and socio-cultural factors. However, only a few attempts have been made to integrate all of these insights into systems models of future transport energy demand or even scenario analysis. This paper addresses this gap in research and practice by presenting the development and use of quantitative scenarios using an integrated transport-energy-environment systems model to explore four contrasting futures for Scotland that compare transport-related ‘lifestyle’ changes and socio-cultural factors against a transition pathway focussing on transport electrification and the phasing out of conventionally fuelled vehicles using a socio-technical approach. We found that radical demand and supply strategies can have important synergies and trade-offs between reducing life cycle greenhouse gas and air quality emissions. Lifestyle change alone can have a comparable and earlier effect on transport carbon and air quality emissions than a transition to EVs with no lifestyle change. Yet, the detailed modelling of four contrasting futures suggests that both strategies have limits to meeting legislated carbon budgets, which may only be achieved with a combined strategy of radical change in travel patterns, mode and vehicle choice, vehicle occupancy and on-road driving behaviour with high electrification and phasing out of conventional petrol and diesel road vehicles. The newfound urgency of ‘cleaning up our act’ since the Paris Agreement and Dieselgate scandal suggests that we cannot just wait for the ‘technology fix’.
Highlights
The outcomes of the 2015 Paris Agreement (United Nations 2015) and the US ‘Dieselgate’1 emissions scandal have prompted policy makers, regulators and industry to re-evaluate strategies to meet climate change mitigation and air quality goals
The distance travelled by car as a driver or a passenger decreases by 52% by 2050, which is a result of significant mode shifts, to bus travel towards the latter part of the period (+ 85% for local bus, + 260% for express coach) and cycling and walking for shorter trips in urban areas
The results suggest that the 1.5C target will be very tough to meet in Scotland without further action on heavy goods vehicles, international aviation and shipping, and further decarbonisation of the power sector beyond 2030
Summary
The outcomes of the 2015 Paris Agreement (United Nations 2015) and the US ‘Dieselgate’ emissions scandal have prompted policy makers, regulators and industry to re-evaluate strategies to meet climate change mitigation and air quality goals. There are exceptions, exemplified by the recent dip in diesel car sales in the UK (a 6% change in market share from diesel to petrol and plug-in cars between 2016 and 2017), which suggests that change can happen faster than we might expect and for reasons beyond price and regulation (e.g. anti-diesel rhetoric, change in attitudes, delayed purchasing decisions due to market uncertainty) (SMMT 2018) It is well-known that transport energy consumption and related pollutant emissions are influenced by technical efficiency, mode choice, activity levels and the carbon/pollutant content of energy (EEA 2011; Yang et al 2009), and by the way we live (or ‘lifestyles’2), socio-cultural factors (e.g. expenditure patterns, localism, multiple car ownership, (un)acceptability of air travel, social norms, habits and the ageing population) and, crucially, by changes in the number of and composition of the population. As only few attempts have been made to apply these insights in models of future transport energy demand (Anable et al 2012; Chitnis and Hunt 2012; Köhler et al 2009; Skippon et al 2016; Weber and Perrels 2000), there is a methodological gap between the identified importance of these factors for transport energy systems and quantitative modelling frameworks
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
