Abstract
California has set two ambitious targets aimed at achieving a high level of decarbonization in the coming decades, namely (i) to generate 60% and 100% of its electricity using renewable energy (RE) technologies, respectively, by 2030 and by 2045, and (ii) introducing at least 5 million zero emission vehicles (ZEVs) by 2030, as a first step towards all new vehicles being ZEVs by 2035. In addition, in California, photovoltaics (PVs) coupled with lithium-ion battery (LIB) storage and battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are, respectively, the most promising candidates for new RE installations and new ZEVs, respectively. However, concerns have been voiced about how meeting both targets at the same time could potentially negatively affect the electricity grid’s stability, and hence also its overall energy and carbon performance. This paper addresses those concerns by presenting a thorough life-cycle carbon emission and energy analysis based on an original grid balancing model that uses a combination of historical hourly dispatch and demand data and future projections of hourly demand for BEV charging. Five different scenarios are assessed, and the results unequivocally indicate that a future 80% RE grid mix in California is not only able to cope with the increased demand caused by BEVs, but it can do so with low carbon emissions (<110 g CO2-eq/kWh) and satisfactory net energy returns (EROIPE-eq = 12–16).
Highlights
The Life cycle assessment (LCA) method enables the calculation of a large number of impact indicators; this paper focuses on the calculation of the global warming potential (GWP), using Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)-derived characterization factors with a time horizon of 100 years and expressed in units of kg of CO2 -equivalent for all gaseous emissions with the exclusion of biogenic CO2
Comparing across the five scenarios shows that the chosen grid adaptation strategy to cope with the increased electricity demand due to battery electric vehicles (BEVs), based on ramping up PV installed power and lithium-ion battery (LIB) battery storage, is technically effective at ensuring the continued matching of the total hourly demand profile, but it manages to do so without any appreciable adverse effect in terms of carbon emissions or non-renewable primary energy intensity
It is noteworthy that despite the grid mix being heavily tilted towards PV, the largest contribution by far (~80%) to both types of impact is still caused by gas-fired electricity
Summary
Electricity is increasingly recognised as an essential commodity to ensure the economic growth, productivity and well-being of modern societies. Ensuring a reliable supply of electricity is, of crucial importance. It is commonly accepted that the ever-growing demand for energy is in large part responsible for the increasing concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2 ) in the atmosphere [1]. This awareness has prompted many countries to approve The Paris Agreement in 2015 and to commit to the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to the atmosphere [2]. Among the measures implemented by governments, decarbonizing electricity generation systems has rightfully taken centre stage
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