Life cycle losses of critical raw materials from solar and wind energy technologies and their role in the future material availability

Abstract

Photovoltaic and wind power technologies will continue to play a crucial role in decarbonizing global energy systems in the next decades. Estimations of future material demands usually do not include life cycle material losses in its whole extent. This paper presents results of a screening study on life cycle losses including extraction, manufacturing and both scrap and end-of-life recycling processes for eight materials. Besides, a framework for calculating the future material demand taking into account the whole life cycle material losses is presented. Based on the projections of the “Beyond 2 Degree Scenario” by IEA-ETP 2017, the cumulated demands and annual demands are calculated and compared to geological reserves and annual production capacities, respectively. Results show that total future cumulated demand overshoots current global reserve estimates only for Tellurium, Indium and Selenium. Annual Tellurium, Indium and Gallium production capacities have to be expanded even in low penetration scenarios. Uncertainties of life cycle losses during manufacturing and extraction phases are higher than in both, scrap and end-of-life recycling. Including life cycle losses may increase material demand of the investigated technologies by factors of 15-37 for Ga, In, Pr and Se as well as by factors of 4-5 for Dy, Nd and Te. Including most optimistic assumptions and technological innovations may decrease material intensities by 1-18% for rare earth elements. These findings have implications for analysts that compare technology demand scenarios to reserve or resource figures since excluding life cycle losses is shown to drastically underestimate necessary material extraction. More explicit statistical tools for quantifying material demand under high uncertainties are suggested.