A forecast on future raw material demand and recycling potential of lithium-ion batteries in electric vehicles

Abstract

The market for electromobility has grown constantly in the last years. To ensure a future supply of raw materials for the production of new batteries for electric vehicles, it is essential to estimate the future demand for battery metals. This study focuses on the future demand for electric vehicle battery cathode raw materials lithium, cobalt, nickel, and manganese by considering different technology and growth scenarios. The results show that in 2040 the future material demand for lithium, cobalt, and nickel for Lithium-Ion Batteries in electric vehicles exceeds current raw material production. Depending on the growth and technology scenario, the future demand for lithium and cobalt exceeds today's production by up to 8 times in 2040. Nickel exceeds today's production in one scenario. For manganese, future demand in 2040 remains far below today's production. The recycling potential for lithium and nickel is more than half the raw material demand for Lithium-Ion Batteries in 2040. For cobalt, the recycling potential even exceeds the raw material demand in 2040. In conclusion, it remains a challenge for the industry to massively scale up resource production and focus on the recycling of battery metals in the future to meet the increasing consumption of electromobility.