Life cycle carbon emissions of China's passenger vehicle sector: a fleet-based study

Abstract

The passenger vehicle sector has been identified as a major contributor to carbon emissions in China. Accurately estimating carbon emissions is crucial, particularly in light of China's ambitious goal to reach its carbon emissions peak by 2030. Previous life cycle assessment (LCA) studies on single-passenger vehicles rarely consider technological advancements to accurately predict future carbon emissions in the entire fleet. As such, a fleet-based life cycle approach that integrates input-output-based hybrid LCA (IOH-LCA) and system dynamics is proposed to simulate the evolution of carbon emissions in the passenger vehicle sector from 2016 to 2035. This method captures the complex changes in the sets of vehicles produced for sale, in use, and disposed of over time, as well as the multiple time-dependent technological advancements. A scenario analysis is constructed to analyze carbon emissions in alignment with the commitment to achieving the carbon emissions peak by 2030. The results indicate that, in a positive scenario with the combined advancement of multiple technologies, the passenger vehicle sector will be able to peak carbon emissions before 2030. This study could provide support for policymaking regarding carbon reduction in China's electrification of passenger vehicles.