Life cycle assessment of prospective scenarios maximizing renewable resources in the Brazilian electricity matrix

Abstract

The energy transition from fossil to renewable sources is of paramount importance to reduce GHG and air pollutants emissions from energy generation processes while promoting socioeconomic development. This study investigates the long-term changes in prospective scenarios' environmental and economic performance in Brazil's electricity matrix. The reference Scenario represents the government's Energy Research Office (EPE) energy expansion plan, and in addition three different scenarios were developed. All of them assumed that fossil fuel use would be constant and equal to the values in 2019. In Scenario 2, we assumed that fossil fuel growth from the EPE plan would be replaced by maximum biomass penetration in the 2030-2050 timeframe. In Scenario 3 this replacement will be made by the maximum penetration of the wind source while in Scenario 4 by maximum solar photovoltaic source penetration. The best performance in terms of lower GWP is to Scenario 3, with 0.121 kgCO2/kWh. The lowest LCOE is reached in case of Scenario 3, at 0.0438 USD/kWh. Based on the obtained results the renewable sources evaluated in this study are advantageous in bringing environmental and economic benefits in Brazil, even in relatively small fractions. The results can be a support for energy policy decision-makers.