Abstract
Biofuels and electrification are potential ways to reduce CO2 emissions from the transport sector, although not without limitations or associated problems. This paper describes a life-cycle analysis (LCA) of the Brazilian urban passenger transport system. The LCA considers various scenarios of a wholesale conversion of car and urban bus fleets to 100% electric or biofuel (bioethanol and biodiesel) use by 2050 compared to a business as usual (BAU) scenario. The LCA includes the following phases of vehicles and their life: fuel use and manufacturing (including electricity generation and land-use emissions), vehicle and battery manufacturing and end of life. The results are presented in terms of CO2, nitrous oxides (NOx) and particulate matter (PM) emissions, electricity consumption and the land required to grow the requisite biofuel feedstocks. Biofuels result in similar or higher CO2 and air pollutant emissions than BAU, while electrification resulted in significantly lower emissions of all types. Possible limitations found include the amount of electricity consumed by electric vehicles in the electrification scenarios.
Highlights
This article describes a life-cycle analysis (LCA) performed for urban passenger transport (cars, urban buses and bus rapid transit (BRT) buses) in Brazil for the years 2015–2050 in five-year steps, calculated in a spreadsheet
Abdul-Manan [3] quotes a 10%–60% advantage in other studies, and finds a 40% reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG), along with a 60% likelihood that GHG emissions would increase if hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) were displaced by battery electric vehicles (BEVs)
From an LCA perspective, the major difference between a BEV and its ICEV equivalent is a shift of emissions from those produced in the production and use of fossil fuel to those from the production of batteries and the electricity used to power the vehicle
Summary
This article describes a life-cycle analysis (LCA) performed for urban passenger transport (cars, urban buses and bus rapid transit (BRT) buses) in Brazil for the years 2015–2050 in five-year steps, calculated in a spreadsheet. The LCA compares the effect of a gradual but complete shift to the use of either biofuels or battery electric vehicles (BEVs) from a 2015 starting point and compared to a business as usual (BAU) scenario. The scenarios assume that the only change made is the propulsion technology/fuel used and that the distance driven by all vehicles (within each mode) per year is the same for all scenarios. The authors acknowledge a wholesale conversion to a particular powertrain type is neither realistic or necessarily desirable, but the intention of this LCA is not to provide a forecast of greenhouse gas (GHG) and air pollution emissions or other factors; the system is too complex and the uncertainties too great. The intention is to compare the effect of applying the various technologies/fuels in extremis in order to discern their effect in a simplified manner and identify any possible limitations and allow further discussions on the ideal policy strategy
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