Life-Course Pathways to Exceptional Longevity: Evidence From the Lothian Birth Cohort of 1921.

Abstract

Longevity, a hallmark of successful aging, is a multifactorial trait with influences from birth onwards. However, limited evidence exists on the pathways linking diverse life-course exposures to longevity, especially within a single cohort. We investigated associations between life-course factors and longevity among community-dwelling adults aged 79 (N = 547) from the Lothian Birth Cohort 1921 with a mortality follow-up of 24 years. Cox proportional hazards and structural equation (path) models were used to explore how factors from early life (social class, childhood intelligence quotient [IQ], education), midlife (social class), and later life (health, lifestyle, psychosocial well-being), as well as sex, personality, and apolipoprotein E e4 status, influence survival time in days. During follow-up (1999-2023), 538 participants (98%) died (mean age of death = 89.3 years) and 9 survived (mean age = 101.6 years). Factors associated with lower mortality risk in the multivariable Cox model were higher cognitive function (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.72; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.59-0.88), better physical function (HR = 0.61; 95% CI: 0.44-0.85), and greater physical activity (HR = 0.81; 95% CI: 0.71-0.92), while history of cancer was associated with higher mortality risk (HR = 1.84; 95% CI: 1.22-2.77). The life-course path model identified the same direct predictors, with additional contributions from female sex and nonsmoking status, to greater longevity. Early- and midlife factors (IQ, education, social class), and emotional stability, conscientiousness, and female sex, were indirectly and positively associated with survival trajectories via multiple dimensions of adult health. In understanding why people live to very old ages it is necessary to consider factors from throughout the life course, and to include demographic, psychosocial, and health variables.