Les déterminants des prix des matières premières : une analyse économétrique

Abstract

The Determinants of Primary Commodity Prices: An Econometric Analysis Gérald Collange, François Guillaumat-Tailliet Since the early seventies the changes in the world environment have induced major variations in the prices of primary commodities. Hence the developing countries find themselves in a state of dépendance for two reasons. Not only does the main part of their export earnings come from the sale of primary products, but also their modest weight in world activity means that they are subject to the state of the world economy far more than they can exert an influence on it. This paper attempts to measure the impact of world economic fluctuations on the prices of non-oil primary commodities exported by LDC's from 1973 to 1987. Economic activity in industrial countries — the main importers of these commodities — and changes in the dollar real exchange rate, which are the principal factors underlying the demand for primary commodities, account adequately for the movements in the overall price index. Our econometric study confirms the influence of changes in interest rates on prices, through inventory holdings. The analysis of the main commodity groups provides good results for the prices of agricultural raw materials and metals, which are both very sensitive to changes in demand, but the estimation results for the prices of food and beverages are not satisfactory, these commodities depending much more on supply-side factors.