Least-cost pathways to net-zero, coupled energy systems: A case study in Australia

Abstract

This paper investigates the least-cost greenhouse gas (GHG) abatement pathway for a coupled energy system. We consider the roles of diverse abatement technologies, such as renewable electricity generation, biomass and carbon capture and storage (CCS), as well as sources of operational flexibility, such as peaking generators, electricity storage, transmission and electrolysis. Scenario and sensitivity analyses are applied to explore plausible pathways to energy system decarbonization. All modelled pathways to a zero-emissions energy system feature an accelerating transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy with diverse technologies playing a role. This includes variable renewable generators (VRG), CCS, and sources of operational flexibility on different timescales. Specifically, synchronous condensers appear to be a cost-effective option to control system frequency, inter-seasonal hydrogen storage in engineered caverns can play a significant and complementary role to that of pumped hydro and battery storage, and technologies that capture and sequester atmospheric carbon, including biomass-to-CCS and direct air capture (DAC), can also play a significant role in the transition to net-zero emissions.