Abstract
Intensive shrimp farming is a lucrative and highly risky business. Before entering this industry, most farmers spend time observing the operation of pilot farms. This stage is important to master essential techniques and judge the profitability and risk associated with shrimp farming. Learning is a complex process that leads to misconceptions about the nature of short-term and long-term risks. This paper uses computer simulation to illuminate the dynamic nature of the learning processes, land conversion, shrimp production and environmental contamination. The model is based on conditions of the Dai Hoa Loc Commune in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam. Initial simulations match statistical data by revealing the high risk: high initial profits from the pilot farms followed by conversion from rice land to shrimp farms. When rapid conversion occurs, the region is vulnerable to excessive accumulation of nutrients, a decline in shrimp yields and financial failure. In contrast, low stock densities deliver a lower profit which is insufficient to stimulate mass land conversion. The paper concludes with testing recovery strategies for farmers who have suffered the longer term impacts of high stocking density. Results show that yield recovery is possible by improving the channel and imposing regulatory control over stocking density.
Highlights
The Mekong Delta of Vietnam has a long history of suffering from seawater intrusion
This paper describes a dynamic model of the learning process of farmers
When the pilot farms start with a high stock density, the profit is attractive to the rest of the community and more farmers convert quickly to shrimp farming
Summary
The Mekong Delta of Vietnam has a long history of suffering from seawater intrusion. People of the affected area practice rice farming in the wet season but they can only fish or practice aquaculture for subsistence in the dry season. What followed was development of pioneering farms, rapid conversion of rice lands to shrimp ponds, intensive stocking of the farms and high shrimp production. Almost all farmers in the study region were originally rice producers When they observed the high profit from shrimp compared to profit from rice, and they believed they have learned enough technical skills from both neighbors and training courses, they decided to convert the paddy fields to shrimp ponds. Farmers face the high cost of converting the deep ponds to shallow fields and the challenge of flushing out the high levels of salt which have accumulated from shrimp production. The model simulates the interplay between shrimp farming and the environment and the longer term consequences for the farmers. The simulations help us to understand the limitations to human foresight that can lead to irreversible consequences
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