Learning ensembles of deep neural networks for extreme rainfall event detection

Abstract

Accurate rainfall estimation is crucial to adequately assess the risk associated with extreme events capable of triggering floods and landslides. Data gathered from Rain Gauges (RGs), sensors devoted to measuring the intensity of the rain at individual points, are commonly used to feed interpolation methods (e.g., the Kriging geostatistical approach) and estimate the precipitation field over an area of interest. However, the information provided by RGs could be insufficient to model complex phenomena, and computationally expensive interpolation methods could not be used in real-time environments. Integrating additional data sources (e.g., radar and geostationary satellites) is an effective solution for improving the quality of the estimate, but it needs to cope with Big Data issues. To overcome all these issues, we propose a Rainfall Estimation Model (REM) based on an Ensemble of Deep Neural Networks (DeepEns-REM) that can automatically fuse heterogeneous data sources. The usage of Residual Blocks in the base models and the adoption of a Snapshot procedure to build the ensemble guarantees a fast convergence and scalability. Experimental results, conducted on a real dataset concerning a southern region in Italy, demonstrate the quality of the proposal in comparison with the Kriging interpolation technique and other machine learning techniques, especially in the case of exceptional rainfall events.