Lead and delinquency rates; A spatio-temporal perspective.

Abstract

Juvenile delinquency has significant social costs for perpetrators, victims, and communities. To understand the distribution of delinquency offenses this study considers the spatial clustering of juvenile delinquency with lead, race, and neighborhood deprivation using a longitudinal ecological design (N=4390) and a hierarchical model implemented in a Bayesian methodology that allows space-time interaction. The results show lead exposure is positively related to delinquency offense rates, and over time delinquency rates have become more concentrated in areas with higher levels of lead exposure and shares of Black or African American residents. The study emphasizes the isolation of neighborhoods with social problems and the importance of monitoring patterns of lead and crime at local levels as communities implement lead exposure mitigation programs.