Le modèle américain : « une reconversion réussie mais inachevée»

Abstract

The American model : a successful but unfinished transition Hélène Baudchon At the mid-year of 1997, the dynamism of the American economy remains very strong. After a slow take-off, the current business cycle seems to go on and on, benefiting from the growth of domestic demand, strong job creations and weak inflation. Despite the paradoxical features of these success in the business cycle logic, it can be explained by the successful reconversion of the American economy, now engaged for more than ten years. The United States have moved from a sclerosed situation due to the dollar appreciation to a situation where the market forces play whithout any constraints. This evolution is not a structural revolution of the American society. Indeed, both the current position of the United States in the international economic environment and the control of the public deficit have been made possible thanks to renewed trade and fiscal policies. But, fundamentally, behaviors have not changed at all. The American standard remains based on a free market economy and the American people are still very optimist. The American economy is now in a transient situation : the reconversion is not yet complete but things seem to have got off to a good start. That is why it is quite difficult to gauge it through the national accounts. The monetary policy is both actor and witness of this evolution : it has contributed to create this stable nominal environment and benefits from it now. The keystone of the current dynamism is the American capacity to create different kinds of jobs, generating incomes and supporting debt. Of course the quality of these jobs and the households solvability remain in debate, but it is partly compensated by the high level of consumer confidence. The only failure is the persistence of the trade deficit. The sectoral specialization, in accordance with the resources allocation, translates into a strong penetration of imports which is not completely balanced by the export growth although the geographical composition of the foreign trade looks more balanced and even if the United States benefit from the NAFTA zone. The bi-par- tisan agreement concluded between the Clinton Administration and the Congress on the way to a balanced budget in the year 2002 can be considered as the perfect final touch. It results both from the structural reduction of the deficit, under way since 1993, and from the strong growth. The credibility of the plan suffers nevertheless from two critics : the fundamental reforms, needed to strengthen the current path of fiscal consolidation, are postponed and the expected effect (lower interest rates and higher private saving) are not guaranteed at all.