Latin American and Caribbean Participation in China's Belt and Road Initiative

Abstract

In March 2013,1 Chinese President Xi Jinping proposed the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a multinational infrastructure project in which China fnances initiatives in partner countries targeted towards advancing fve key cooperation priorities: policy coordination, facilities connectivity, unimpeded trade, fnancial integration, and people-to-people bond.2 In 2017, Panama became the frst country in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) to join the BRI.3 Since then, 21 LAC countries have joined the initiative by signing a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with China.4 Despite the rising popularity of the program in the region, twelve countries remain non-participants. This paper aims to employ a qualitative approach to analyze the participatory variation within Latin America and the Caribbean, asking if countries with increasing levels of trade interdependence with China are more likely to have signed a BRI MOU. It also considers potential diplomatic and political factors, such as a country’s recognition of Taiwan, that may preclude a country from joining the initiative. This paper is centered around a comparative case study of four countries with diferent levels of trade interdependence and BRI participation statuses: Chile, El Salvador, Colombia, and Guatemala. Within the scope of this case study, the results show that countries with upward trends across trade interdependence indices are more likely to participate in the BRI.