Abstract
Knowledge of true mortality trajectory at extreme old ages is important for biologists who test their theories of aging with demographic data. Studies using both simulation and direct age validation found that longevity records for ages 105 years and older are often incorrect and may lead to spurious mortality deceleration and mortality plateau. After age 105 years, longevity claims should be considered as extraordinary claims that require extraordinary evidence. Traditional methods of data cleaning and data quality control are just not sufficient. New, more strict methodologies of data quality control need to be developed and tested. Before this happens, all mortality estimates for ages above 105 years should be treated with caution.
Highlights
Knowledge of true mortality trajectory at extreme old ages is important for actuaries and for biologists who test their theories of aging with demographic data
February 7, 2019 conducted in the 1990s suggest that the exponential growth of human mortality with age is followed by a period of deceleration, with slower rates of mortality increase
Newman demonstrates that rare cases of age misreporting among people in their eighties eventually result in accumulation of false claims at extreme old ages and produce spurious mortality deceleration [25,26]
Summary
Knowledge of true mortality trajectory at extreme old ages is important for actuaries and for biologists who test their theories of aging with demographic data. February 7, 2019 conducted in the 1990s suggest that the exponential growth of human mortality with age (the Gompertz law) is followed by a period of deceleration, with slower rates of mortality increase (see Box 1). It was found that mortality of US extinct cohorts born after 1889 demonstrated the Gompertz-like trajectory in the age interval 85 to 106 years [9,17].
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