Abstract
Childbearing takes place at increasingly older ages, and fertility is continuing to decrease across female birth cohorts. This study investigated whether the proportion of women who unintentionally forwent childbearing increased over time, and linked this to the age profile of fertility intentions and realization among men and women. This study was based on the Austrian Micro-Censuses (1986–2016) and on the Austrian Generations and Gender Surveys (panel data 2008/09 and 2012/13). Across the birth cohorts 1950–1979, an increasing proportion of women wanted to have children after 40 years of age, but more women failed to meet their fertility intentions expressed at 34–36 years of age. At the individual level, from 30 years of age, more than one-third of women and men with a strong fertility intention were found to persist with this intention within four years even at less fertile ages. In addition, women and men with a strong fertility intention became less likely to have a child with age: <10% of women and approximately 20% of men who had expressed a certain and short-term intention to have a child at 39–41 years of age in 2008/09 had a child by 2012/13. In particular, childless women and men, and those with only one child, persisted in certain and short-term positive intentions from 30 years of age, but parity was not a significant factor in their realization. The sharp increase in ‘unrealized fertility’ over time draws attention to the importance that personal circumstances and context encountered at older ages may have for fertility, and augurs a continued increase in the use of assisted reproduction.
Highlights
Introduction In all European countries, having children, whether the first child or subsequent children, relies increasingly on later reproductive life (Beaujouan, 2020; Billari et al, 2007; Prioux, 2005)
Childlessness has become more prevalent, and the number of children that people have over their lifetime has decreased continuously (Sobotka, 2017; Sobotka et al, 2011). Such a trend is usually attributed to the decades-long change in childbearing norms and values (Lesthaeghe, 2010), but a small part of it has been attributed to increasing sterility with age (Leridon and Slama, 2008; te Velde et al, 2012)
The proportion of people who do not have a child results from a ‘specific combination of intended childlessness, postponed decisions leading to involuntary childlessness, or constraints affecting abilities to achieve intentions at the individual level’ (Fiori et al, 2017: 319; see Buhr and Huinink, 2017)
Summary
Received Date: Revised Date: Accepted Date: January 2021 24 August 2021 14 October 2021. This is a PDF file of an article that has undergone enhancements after acceptance, such as the addition of a cover page and metadata, and formatting for readability, but it is not yet the definitive version of record. This version will undergo additional copyediting, typesetting and review before it is published in its final form, but we are providing this version to give early visibility of the article. Wittgenstien Centre for Global Human Capital, University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
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