Large-scale integration of renewable energies by 2050 through demand prediction with ANFIS, Ecuador case study

Abstract

The growing reliance on hydroelectric power and the risk of future droughts pose significant challenges for power systems, especially in developing countries. To address these challenges, comprehensive long-term energy planning is essential. This paper proposes an optimized electrical system for 2050, using Ecuador as a case study. For forecasting electricity demand, a Neuro-Fuzzy Adaptive Inference System is employed, utilizing real historical data. Subsequently, the EnergyPlan software constructs a long-term energy consumption model, exploring three scenarios based on Ecuador's energy potential. The first scenario represents a 'business as usual’ approach, mirroring the current trend in the Ecuadorian electricity system. In contrast to the second scenario, it encompasses a broader range of renewable sources, including offshore wind, pumped storage, biomass, and geothermal energy. The third scenario extends the second one by incorporating demand response systems, such as vehicle-to-grid and hydrogen-to-grid technologies. In terms of novelty, this study highlights the innovative use of the Neuro-Fuzzy Adaptive Inference System for demand forecasting, along with a comprehensive exploration of multiple scenarios to optimize the electrical system. Research findings indicate that the integration of these new renewable energy sources not only reduces electricity import costs but also ensures surplus electricity production. Consequently, it is anticipated that the 2050 electricity system will reduce its dependence on hydroelectric energy while adopting photovoltaic and wind energy with penetration rates of 65 %, 11.2 %, and 9 %, respectively. This transition will be facilitated by a pumped storage system with a 28 % penetration rate and enhanced connectivity with neighboring countries, enabling the seamless integration of electric and hydrogen vehicles.