Abstract
Arabic documents and manuscripts containing detailed descriptions of material damage and ground deformation due to earthquakes in northwestern Syria have been used to establish a catalogue of local seismicity and assign epicentral intensities to the earthquakes. Large earthquakes affecting the northern Syrian fault system apparently have a recurrence interval of about 340±60 yr. Here we use this figure and a relationship between recurrence interval and seismic moment, recently proposed by Molnar, to estimate the maximum seismic moment (0.5 × 1027 ≤ M0Max ≤ 3.7 × 1027) and the magnitude (7.1 ≤ Mw ≤ 7.7) of the largest earthquakes in northwestern Syria. Such an earthquake is not expected for at least one century but an earthquake with magnitude 6 ≤ Mw ≤ 7 might occur in the near future.
Published Version
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