Landscape Pattern and Ecological Risk Assessment in Guilin Based on Land Use Change.

Abstract

The land use and ecological risk patterns in Guilin, which is the only innovation demonstration zone under the National Sustainable Development Agenda in China with a focus on the sustainable use of natural resources, have changed significantly as a result of the combined impact of climate change and human activities, thus presenting challenges to the sustainable development of the local area. This research employs an ecological risk assessment model and spatial analysis techniques in order to analyze the spatial correlation between land use and ecological risk, and to evaluate the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of ecological risk at the overall and county scales in Guilin. The results reveal the following: (1) A total of 1848.6 km2 land types in Guilin have changed from 2000 to 2020, and construction land has gradually expanded from the central urban area to the suburbs with increasing internal stability each year. (2) The ecological risk level in Guilin showed a decreasing trend at the city scale, but some regions still showed an increasing trend at the county distribution scale. (3) The ecological risk value in Guilin has significant spatial correlation, and the spatial distribution showed a clustering effect, which was consistent with the spatial distribution of ecological risk class areas. The research results can provide a reference for ecological risk control and sustainable development of landscape resource cities.