Abstract
This research study explores three urban planning scenarios for Melbourne, Australia in 2030 and their implications for transport sustainability. As part of the analyses, a transport sustainability index, derived from 10 sustainability indicators, was developed and applied to compare the scenarios. A base-case scenario, an activity-centres scenario, and a fringe-focus scenario were used to consider compact to expanded urban development patterns. The activity-centres scenario, which favours compact development patterns, had the highest transport sustainability index. In contrast, the fringe-focus scenario that significantly expands urban development in the fringe resulted in a lower transport sustainability index. The results of scenario analysis would influence decisions regarding urban development in 2030.
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