Land use modeling and carbon storage projections of the Bosten Lake Basin in China from 1990 to 2050 across multiple scenarios

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Given the escalating issue of global climate change, it is imperative to comprehend and quantify the effects of land use change on carbon storage (CS), which pertains not only to the preservation of ecosystem functions but also directly influences the equilibrium and stability of the global carbon cycle. This study examines the correlation between CS and land use change, forecasts the future spatial distribution of CS, and offers a reference for the rational planning of watershed space. Focusing on the Bosten Lake Basin of Xinjiang in China, employing the land use simulation (PLUS) model and the integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs (InVEST) model to forecast the spatial distribution of carbon stocks across three developmental scenarios, while also examining the shift in the center of gravity of CS and the autocorrelation of their spatial distribution. The findings derived from the study are as follows: (1) From 1990 to 2020, the predominant land use type in the Bosten Lake Basin was grassland, while there was an upward trend in the areas of cropland, forest land, built-up land, and wetland, alongside a downward trend in the areas of grassland, water, and unused land. (2) In the long term, the regional CS exhibits an upward trend, with the most significant increase anticipated in the EPS scenario. Grassland constitutes the most extensive carbon reservoir in the Bosten Lake Basin, while wetlands exhibit the highest carbon sequestration potential. (3) The alteration in the center of gravity of CS is associated with the expansion or reduction of the major regional carbon reservoirs and types characterized by significant carbon sequestration potential. (4) In the long term, the spatial correlation of CS in the Bosten Lake Basin exhibits a consistent upward trend, with the most pronounced spatial correlation observed under EPS.