Abstract
The UK's 2008 Climate Change Act sets a legally binding target for reducing territorial greenhouse gas emissions by 80% by 2050, relative to 1990 levels. Four pathways to achieve this target have been developed by the Department of Energy and Climate Change, with all pathways requiring increased us of bioenergy. A significant amount of this could be indigenously sourced from crops, but will increased domestic production of energy crops conflict with other agricultural priorities?To address this question, a coupled analysis of the UK energy system and land use has been developed. The two systems are connected by the production of bioenergy, and are projected forwards in time under the energy pathways, accounting for various constraints on land use for agriculture and ecosystem services.The results show different combinations of crop yield and compositions for the pathways lead to the appropriation of between 7% and 61% of UK's agricultural land for bioenergy production. This could result in competition for land for food production and other land uses, as well as indirect land use change in other countries due to an increase in bioenergy imports. Consequently, the potential role of bioenergy in achieving UK emissions reduction targets may face significant deployment challenges.
Highlights
The results of this study show that the land requirements to meet bioenergy demand under the Carbon Plan pathways could lead to significant land use change impacts, and could result in increased competition for suitable agricultural land in the UK
The results presented show that the land area requirements significantly exceed the UK Bioenergy Strategy's 2030 estimation of sustainable land-use for most pathways
This is followed by the land requirements and future land use distribution under the Carbon Plan pathways
Summary
The Carbon Plan assumes that a range of bioenergy sources can assist with the achievement of the bioenergy projections for each of its pathways, including bioenergy from crops, dedicated and waste wood fuel, agricultural residue, and biomass waste in landfill These provide the raw materials for the generation of electricity, heat and liquid biofuels. Future changes in the UK energy system, could according to Popp et al (2014), result in significant changes to the current UK agricultural landscape and management practices This might include sustainable intensification that improves yields, with increased fertilizer application, and replacement of certain crops (e.g. Franks, 2014; Fish et al, 2014), or by exploitation of unused arable land, as well as use of other productive and marginal lands (e.g. Horrocks et al, 2014). At a gross minimum margin of d241/ha for SRC (at d60/odt) the land availability decreases to 0.62–2.43 Mha (Aylott and McDermott, 2012)
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