Land use changes impact on selected chemical denudation element and components of water cycle in small mountain catchment using SWAT model

Abstract

Land use changes are extremely important in the context of land and water management. This study examines impact of land use and land cover (LULC) changes on nitrate nitrogen, outflow and surface runoff in the agriculture catchment in the Polish Carpathians using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The study covers 25-year (1995–2019) and was divided into three periods relating to different LULC patterns (1995–2004, 2005–2012, 2013–2019). The LULC maps used were based on aerial photos from 1997, 2009, and 2016. The SWAT was calibrated and applied to periods with variable LULC (in simulation 1) and by keeping the LULC constant during the period 1995–2019 (simulation 2; the LULC from 1997) to determine the impact of LULC changes on the analysed variables. The ongoing LULC changes were found to have resulted in a reduction of cultivated land area (by 72 %) and an increase of grassland (by 45 %), forest (by 2 %) and urbanised areas (by 17 %). The SWAT model achieved reasonable accuracy. The model results tend to overestimate the load of nitrate nitrogen and underestimate outflow and surface runoff. The LULC changes resulted in a decrease in outflow between 1995 and 2004 of 24 % in comparison to 2013–2019, and a decrease in surface runoff of 12 %. At the same time, there was a significant decrease in nitrate nitrogen load of 68 % (from 13.0 kg ha−1 in 1995–2004 to 4.2 kg ha−1 in 2013–2019). If the LULC of 2013–2019 was restored to 1997 conditions (as in simulation 2), the outflow and load of NO3-N would be higher by 16 % (12 % in simulation 1) and 67 % (55 % in simulation 1) in relation to the observed values. The impact of LULC on the analysed parameters was spatially differentiated between subbasins depending on the scale of the land use changes. The research conducted here indicates that planning and managing the effects of LULC changes is of key importance for sustainable development in terms of the quantity and quality of water.