Land use change simulation model using a land change modeler in anticipation of the impact of the Semeru volcano eruption disaster in Indonesia

Abstract

The eruption of Mount Semeru in the period 2021 to 2022 had caused damages to several settlements and productive land in the Rejali watershed area, a disaster prone area. This study modeled land use change in the Rejali watershed around Mount Semeru from 2022 to 2032 using the Land Change Modeler, with a logistic regression method Markov chain algorithm, and a built-up land scenario based on historic land use data of 2002–2022. The research used primary data in the form of ground-checking, conversion elasticity, and conversion opportunities. In addition, the secondary data used in the research consisted of remote sensing data (Landsat images), physical factors (slope and elevation), and socio-economic factors (distance to highways, rivers, government centers, centers of economic activity, and population density). The data were analyzed using Google Earth Engine, TerrSet, and ArcGIS. The study found there was decrease in waterbody surface area by 5.31 %, forest areas by 23.80 %, whereas increase in built-up land by 3.15 %, open land by 0.48 %, agriculture by 23.71 %, and undeveloped land by 0.01 % in the study area during 2002–2022. The modeled land uses by 2032, were as follows: water body 4.26 %, forest 47.80 %, built-up land 10.18 %, open land 0.10 %, agriculture 35.88 %, undeveloped land 0.48 %, and mountains/vacant land 1.35 %. The increase in built-up land around Mount Semeru will increase the risk of future eruptions. This results can be useful to help urban planners and policymakers make informed sustainable development decisions by understanding the pattern of land use change.