Assessing future land-uses under planning scenarios: A case study of The Brantas River Basin, Indonesia

Abstract

Understanding land-use dynamics and patterns and how they respond to management scenarios helps to develop sustainable land use policies. This study simulated future land uses in Brantas River Basin (BRB), East Java, Indonesia using Land Change Modeler (LCM) under policy scenarios. Following identification of twelve important biophysical and socio-economic spatial drivers, the LCM accurately simulated land-use changes over the period 1995–2015, with validation against the 1995 land use map giving an overall accuracy of 85–88 %. Under a business-as-usual scenario, the LCM predicted that during the period 2015 to 2035 continuing deforestation may leave forest cover accounting for only 4 % of the total BRB area, and cause declines in dryland from 45 % to 40 % and in rice-field farming from 24 % to 22 %. The results of that scenario also indicate the prospect of massive urban development, increasing from 18 % of the BRB area in 2015 to 30 % in 2035, with increasing threats to food security and water resources. Both percentage changes and a mean-weighted fractal dimension index suggest increased risks of forest fragmentation and urban aggregation. A spatial planning-influenced scenario, which aims to reduce forest loss and support watershed protection, is predicted to lead to 5.5 % forest cover, 37 % dryland, 29 % rice-field farming and 24 % urban area in 2035. Sensitivity analysis of the LCM showed that the model results were more sensitive to drivers, spatial resolution, and policy scenarios than to uncertainty in model parameters. It is concluded that despite some limitations, the LCM successfully provided" insights into policy impacts on land-uses in BRB, and the roles of forest and rice-field protection in spatial planning are essential in controlling urban development for watershed sustainability.